AMLO y el Embajador Garza

06MEXICO505

SUBJECT  APOCALYPSE NOT: AMLO ASSURES AMBASSADOR HE WILL

DATE  2006-01-31 14:02:00

CLASSIFICATION  CONFIDENTIAL

ORIGIN  Embassy Mexico

TEXT  51272

2006-01-31 14:22:00

06MEXICO505

Embassy Mexico

CONFIDENTIAL

06MEXICO251|06MEXICO255|06MEXICO505

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INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE TAGS: MX PGOV PINR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 000505

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DEPT TO USAID FOR AA/LAC, DAA/LAC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2016

TAGS: MX PGOV PINR

SUBJECT: APOCALYPSE NOT: AMLO ASSURES AMBASSADOR HE WILL  HAVE A STRONG, SOUND ADMINISTRATION  REF: A. MEXICO 251

¶B. MEXICO 255

Classified By: Ambassador Antonio O. Garza Jr. for reasons 1.4 (B,D)

Summary

¶1. (C) On 01/23, presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez OBRADOR (AMLO) of the leftist-Democratic Revolutionary Party  (PRD) sat down with the Ambassador to discuss his proposals on a number of key issues of interest to the United States.

Accompanied by his foreign policy advisor, Dr. Jose Maria  Perez Gay, and economic advisor, Rogelio Ramirez de la O,

AMLO spoke at length of his plan to stem the flow of  immigration to the U.S. through targeted economic programs in  return for a negotiated accord to "regularize" the status of  Mexicans living abroad. AMLO explained what Mexico's role in  the international arena would be under his presidency, as  well as his plans for major law enforcement restructuring in  order to combat narcotics and terrorist activity more  effectively. He also spoke about his campaign schedule and  what troubles he foresees in the coming months. Humble and  friendly, AMLO did not guarantee a victory come July, but  instead promised to continue working hard and plowing forward. His promises, though lacking in details, show AMLO  is aware of common perceptions regarding his candidacy and  that he tried to ease our minds. He also set the groundwork to seek U.S. assistance -- if elected -- to support several  of his main objectives. End Summary.

Taking Care of Business First, Migrants Later

¶2. (C) On 01/23, the Ambassador hosted the last of three breakfast meetings with Mexico's top presidential candidates  (reftels). Assisting the Ambassador were PolCouns,

EMINCouns, and USAID Director. Fresh off of his morning  half-hour infomercial, AMLO arrived ready for an ample  discussion of key issues. After brief introductions by USAID

Director and EMINCouns, AMLO jumped right into the topic of  immigration. Stating that the rise in immigration was due  primarily to a lack of economic growth in Mexico, AMLO  proposed cooperation with the private sector and the U.S. on  economic development projects as the cheapest avenue for  stemming the flow of migrants, especially in Mexico's  

Southeast where, AMLO said, the new wave of migrants was  originating. He described an economic plan, primarily made  up of large-scale infrastructure programs like highway and housing construction and reforestation projects, that would  generate employment, spur economic growth, and eventually  give Mexico the necessary leverage to negotiate an  immigration accord to "regularize" the status of Mexicans  living in the U.S. In addition to private sector investment,  AMLO will seek U.S. assistance for financing and  accreditation from international institutions for his  projects so that they can continue long after his term is over.

¶3. (C) The Ambassador proposed that AMLO look beyond the  economy when contemplating the immigration issue and focus on  other areas like education, which he stated was consistently raised during his travels in the Southeast. AMLO agreed,  confirming that education was a problem everywhere in Mexico  but especially in rural communities.

Mexico Won't Join Regional Blocs

¶4. (C) The Ambassador asked AMLO about Mexico's role in the  region under his administration and what his position was on  Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia. AMLO responded that the  situations in each of those countries were different because  of their varying economic issues, proposing that there is no  "one" Left and that we should not forget that Brazil,

Argentina and Chile were also considered "leftist"  governments. AMLO explained that Mexico would have a  measured, prudent foreign policy that would be an extension  of his domestic achievements. "We must strengthen Mexico  first," he said, calling for a less protagonistic role in  foreign affairs. The Ambassador explained that Mexico has a role to play if it wants, that it is in position to keep  balance in the region, and that the sheer size of the country  and economy may demand a more active stance. AMLO admitted  that he would be open to cooperation with Central America but  that Mexico would generally not take the lead on multilateral  or international initiatives. He stressed he was not/not  interested in joining any "blocs", specifically Anti-American  or "Anti-Southern" (presumably anti-Mercosur) blocs. AMLO  finished by explaining that he does not particularly like to  travel and that he has never met Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro or  Evo Morales. He did mention, however, that he does know a  handful of other heads of state from his time as mayor of

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Mexico City. While AMLO made abundantly clear foreign policy  was not his priority, he also made clear the U.S. was a  special case.

Keeping the Peace, Together

¶5. (C) Drug consumption is on the rise, noted the Ambassador,  and counter-narcotic and counter-terrorism programs must be  important themes of Mexico's next administration. AMLO agreed and told the Ambassador that both governments must  find ways to increase cooperation. AMLO then laid out his  two-fold plan for combating both issues. First, he said, he wants to give the military more power and authority in  counter-narcotics operations because it is the least corrupt  of all of Mexico's agencies and can be the most effective.

He pointed out, however, that this would require a  constitutional amendment but felt strongly he could get it  done. He also explained that giving the military more  authority would limit Mexico's Prosecutor General's Office  (PGR), which AMLO considered too corrupt to have the lead on  counter-narcotics. The second part of the equation,  according to AMLO, was consolidating Mexico's law enforcement  and intelligence agencies back into the Secretariat of Governance (SEGOB). He proposed doing away with the  Secretariat of Public Security and returning Mexico's Federal

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Police Force (PFP) and intelligence agency (CISEN) to SEGOB.

The plan, as AMLO stated, would help save money, cut agency  infighting, and give SEGOB a more prominent role on internal  issues.

Keep On Rolling Along

¶6. (C) AMLO appeared concerned about the campaign season that  lay ahead, stopping well short of predicting his own victory  in July. He plans to travel the entire country in three stages in an effort to consolidate his base and attract more  independents. These would be the deciding votes, AMLO said,  and he currently holds more of them than any of the other  candidates. In addition, AMLO described his new daily  television program on TV Azteca as a major campaign  component. The half-hour show runs from 6:00 am to 6:30 am  Mondays through Fridays. The show will run every weekday  from now until the end of the campaign at a total cost of 20  million pesos (approximately 2 million USD). AMLO explained  that he would appear live on the show every Monday and  Tuesday and will have special guests appearing the rest of  the week.

¶7. (C) AMLO acknowledged the drawbacks of his two coalition  partners, as well as the weaknesses of his own PRD. While  public infighting between factions of the PRD's Mexico City group undeniably reflected badly on him, AMLO said he was  nonetheless pleased with PRD candidate for Mexico city Mayor  Marcelo Ebrard. AMLO finished by telling the Ambassador he would like to continue meeting with U.S. officials and that  he wants the Embassy ready to sit down and discuss areas of  cooperation immediately after the elections if he should win,

emphasizing that he would not wait until January 2007 to  start organizing his new government.

Comment

¶8. (C) Although lacking in concrete details, AMLO appears to  be working toward putting the right pieces in place for a  strong government. The effectiveness of his government,  however, will require the U.S. playing a key role in his  programs. On every issue raised, AMLO expressed his desire  for new or increased cooperation. This, in addition to an  increase in private sector investment, is relevant because  AMLO proposes cutting government spending while increasing social programs. The emphasis on U.S. development and  financing assistance is a clear sign his government cuts will  not be enough to pay for his social programs and that an  influx of funding from alternate sources are necessary. It  was also apparent that AMLO has not thoroughly thought  through his economic/migration plan. AMLO,s concentration  on infrastructure projects as the key to spurring growth and  employment overlooks many other economic areas that need  attention by the next government if the desired results are  to be obtained. He believes creating jobs in Mexico and  stemming the flow of migrants moving North is just the olive  branch needed to negotiate a "regularization" or amnesty of  those Mexicans already there. Poloff met with AMLO's  campaign coordinator the following day (septel) and explained

that immigration policy was a domestic, congressional affair  and that Mexico's role should be geared more toward  controlling its border and emphasizing all legal migration  tools. An experienced politician, AMLO geared his discussion  to his audience, showing his willingness to discuss the  difficult issues and appearing open to our suggestions. End

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Comment.

Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at  http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

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XTAGS: XTAGMX, XTAGPGOV, XTAGPINR, XTAGMX, XTAGPGOV, XTAGPINR 06MEXICO505

TAGS  MX PGOV PINR MX PGOV PINR

ADDED  2011-04-06 19:07:00

STAMP  2011-04-11 02:30:52

VOTE_POINTS  0

VOTE_COUNT  0

VOTE_RATING  0

PRIORITY  RR