It’s
time to stop Putin/Garry Kasparov is chairman of the Human Rights Foundation, based in New York.
The
Washington Post | 21-03-2014
When
Vladimir Putin formally annexed Crimea this week, he acted in defiance of the
predictions of many pundits, politicians and so-called experts. Perhaps Putin
was not impressed by their sound reasoning and elegant discourse on how his
invasion and annexation threatened Russia’s interests. But the main problem
with the West’s “Putin would never” arguments is that they assume Putin and his
ruling elite care about Russian national interests. They do not, except in the
few areas where such interests overlap with their goal of looting as much treasure
as possible. It is long past time to stop listening to professors’ lectures
about what Putin would never do and high time to respond to what he does —
before he does it again.
The
next obstacle to stopping Putin is the self-imposed paralysis of the leaders of
Europe and the Group of Seven. It is easier for them to say that there is
nothing they can do to check Putin’s ambitions than to admit that they lack the
courage to act. Putin keeps raising the stakes, and the West just keeps
folding. There are plenty of levers available to apply pressure on Putin, but
they require confronting several hard truths. And this is a generation of
political leaders accustomed to telling citizens that it is possible to both
cut taxes and spend more, to be free and be safe, to be a great power without
ever using power.
The
first hard truth is that the only sanctions or other measures that would affect
Putin’s conduct are those that, directly or indirectly, would target his hold
on power. That is all Putin cares about, because he knows what happens when
people in his position lose that grip. This is why a recent comment by
Secretary of State John Kerry was precisely wrong. “We hope President Putin
will recognize that none of what we’re saying is meant as a threat,” Kerry
said. “It’s not meant in a personal way.” With one feeble remark, Kerry took
off the table the only thing Putin cares about.
Obama
repeated this mistake on Wednesday when he said that the United States would
not send troops to defend Ukraine. Nobody was asking for troops, and Obama
probably thinks he is defusing tensions. But where Obama sees a gesture of
peaceful intent, Putin sees more weakness. To Putin, his opponent freely
surrendered one of his greatest advantages: America’s overwhelming military
strength. On Iran, on Syria and now regarding Ukraine, Obama has outsourced his
foreign policy to Putin and, in so doing, has crippled the power of his office
in ways that will long outlast his White House tenure.
The
second hard truth is that there is no dealing with Putin, no mutually
beneficial business as usual. He exploits every opening and feels no obligation
to operate by the rule of law or human rights in or outside of Russia. Putin is
a lost cause, and Russia also will be until he is gone. The West has been in
denial about this for far too long, from George W. Bush’s infamous look into
Putin’s soul to the Obama administration’s waste of four years on a “reset”
with Russia that existed mostly as an American photo-op, not in lasting policy
changes. It has always been an error to treat Putin like any other leader; now,
there are no more excuses.
Putin
won’t back down, or be kicked out, until credible threats to his power create a
split among his elites and advisers. Right now they have no incentive to bet
against him. Putin protects them and their assets while the free world they
enjoy living in has made no moves that would force them to choose between their
riches and Putin. Changing that calculus is the only way to protect Ukraine and
wherever Putin next creates enemies to feed into his propaganda machine.
Obama
and Europe’s leaders keep trying to play by the rules even though Putin has
ripped up the rule book and thrown the shreds in their faces. Kremlin elites
were right to laugh at Western sanctions Monday on a few of Putin’s political
hacks — the step was a joke. The laughter in Moscow surely died down on
Thursday, when Obama personally made a stronger statement and announced new
sanctions against oligarchs and assets that matter to Putin. Even better was
Obama’s threat to sign new orders allowing stiffer penalties to a legal
framework that Putin’s allies know how to exploit. This tells Putin that the
West can change the rules, too. Now it is a question of resolve, of following
this good first step with a second and third until Putin backs down.
Western
leaders would be wise to follow the money: Sanction the elites who support
Putin, go after the family members they use to hide their assets abroad and
scrutinize their companies. If existing laws are inadequate to deal with
billionaire thugs who enable a dangerous regime, write new ones. And do all
this quickly, because the price to remove Putin goes up with every delay.
Eventually, that price will be paid not just in the cash Western countries are
afraid to lose but also in human lives.
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